MLS Week 2 Collective Power Rankings

The real pisser about the Major League Soccer (MLS) schedule is the fact that, by the time I get around to posting these on Thursday, some of these calls look silly. I’m thinking here of that #1 ranking for the Kansas City Wizards; I’m guessing that the 8 of 11 pundits who placed KC on top would reconsider after last night’s loss at home to the New England Revolution. Hardly matters, as this is just meant to be a snapshot in time - e.g. how 11 pundits (or more, given that some sites involved take a collective approach to ranking) stack(ed) up MLS’s 14 teams in the week of the prior week’s action.

So…what to say, generally, about how said 11 pundits stacked up these teams? It’s fair to say they’re not all speaking with one voice. In some cases, they’re barely harmonizing. Teams like DC United, the Houston Dynamo, the Colorado Rapids…well, suffice to say the list goes on. It’s not all muddy water: for instance, 8 of 11 pegged KC at #1 - however dubious that looks after last night - and everyone agrees that the league’s worst team is either Toronto FC or the San Jose Earthquakes.

And who were these 11 pundits? Here ya go (and, again, feel free to post your rankings in the comments after mine, to email me rankings, etc.):

Center Holds It (me)
Goal.com (Kyle McCarthy)
Orlando Sentinel (Brant Parsons)
Fullback Files (um…Fullback?)
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
AYL Soccer (Jacob Hart writes, but it looks collective)
WVHooligan (Drew Epperley)
Blue Blooded Journo (a collective)
3rd Degree (Parrish Glover)
ESPN.com (collective)
Fox Soccer Channel (Keith Costigan)

For those wondering what happened with Soccer By Ives rankings, he’s part of ESPN.com’s collective; that’s also why Andrea Canales’ rankings don’t show. Don’t want to double-count anyone…

(UPDATE: My apologies to On Soccer’s pate.  He forwarded his Week 2 “scariness rankings” for inclusion this post; I had to put it in an update because I couldn’t figure out how to work it into the text.  Anyway, it’s a pretty nifty concept pate has; it’s another way of looking at all this if nothing else.)

I’ll work into some details after the jump, but will start with the how I organized the data. Copy/pasting directions from previous entry: each team will be listed by rank and with their average, collective score following. To provide some perspective, the most common score(s) assigned to each team by the individual members of the collective will appear in parentheses after that, followed by the previous week’s ranking and average. Und, jetzt, der data:

1. Kansas City Wizards, 1.6 (#1 X 8; last week, #3, 3.3)
2. Chivas USA, 1.8 (#2 X 7; last week, #2, 3.2)
3. Chicago Fire, 3.8 (#4 X 4; last week, #7, 7.3)
4. DC United, 4.0 (#3 X 4, #4 X 4; last week, #5, 5.3)
5. New England Revolution, 5.3 (#5 X 3, #6 X 3; last week, #1, 1.3)
6. Red Bull New York, 6.7 (#7 X 3; last week, #10, 8.9)
7. Colorado Rapids, 6.8 (#6 X 3, #8 X 3; last week, #6, 5.9)
8. Houston Dynamo, 7.4 (#9 X 5; last week, #4, 5.2)
9. FC Dallas, 7.8 (#8 X 5; last week, #8, 7.5)
10. Columbus Crew, 10.5 (#10 X 6; last week, #9, 8.5)
11. Los Angeles Galaxy, 10.9 (#10 X 4, #11 X 4; last week, 13, 12.9)
12. Real Salt Lake, 11.4 (#10 X 6; last week, #11, 9.
13. Toronto FC, 13.45 (#13 X 6; last week, #12, 12.5)
14. San Jose Earthquakes, 13.54 (#14 X 6; last week, #14, 13.4)

- You may notice that I took TFC’s and San Jose’s rankings out to the hundredth decimal. The collective had them so close together that they would appear to be tied (e.g. rounding up 13.45 would take me to 13.5). Because, however, the 11 pundits split 6-5 in ranking the teams 13th and 14th, and because Toronto held that sixth vote, they’re actually a little bit higher. Nuts…and I mean that both ways…I have San Jose at 13th.

- Do note Chivas snapping at KC’s heels. I’m guessing they take a bite and haul them down in next week’s rankings…well, provided they can beat the Columbus Crew this weekend on the road. I think they’re good for it.

- Let’s see, biggest drop in the collective rankings - that has to go to New England. A whopping 4 points, one, it seems, for every goal Chicago knocked past them. Muck like the South, the Revs will rise again….again, last night looms large.

- What about the biggest rise? The 3.5 improvement to the Chicago Fire’s average strikes the eye, right along with that #3 ranking. (#3? really?). Same goes for LA’s 2.0 rise; a win over an expansion team is all it takes.

- Chicago’s placement doesn’t hold a candle to what happened with Red Bull: who climbed 2.2 in their average, while rising 4 spots in the rankings. All for beating the Crew…a team few people rate. What can I say? It’s early and the collective is still finding their feet.

- What the hell? Let’s wrap this up by flagging the more dynamic ranges of how pundits view these teams. Again, I don’t point this out to make fun: some seemingly odd calls from the 2007 collective rankings proved prophetic.

Houston Dynamo: No team has people guessing like Houston, who were rated as high as #3 (Sideline Views and 3rd Degree) and as low as #12 (Goal.com).

Red Bull New York: The range isn’t as dramatic, but #3 (Orlando Sentinel) to a couple #9’s (again, Sideline Views and 3rd Degree) that says something…also makes me think the latter two know something we don’t.

- To note a couple teams viewed somewhat unanimously - apart from KC, TFC and San Jose, that is - most people have FC Dallas at either #7 or #8, while the Crew show 10s and 11s across the board.

All for now. See you next week.